Estimación de la curva ambiental de kuznets: relación entre deforestación y crecimiento económico en departamentos del Perú
Fecha
2025
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Universidad Antonio Ruiz de Montoya
Resumen
Este estudio evalúa la validez empírica de la Curva Ambiental de Kuznets para deforestación (CAK-d) en el Perú, utilizando un panel departamental para el periodo 2001-2024. Se estimaron modelos de datos de panel con estimados de efectos fijos y forma cuadrática del ingreso, empleando dos indicadores de pérdida forestal (pérdida de bosque amazónico y pérdida de cobertura arbórea) e incorporando drivers estructurales como expansión agropecuaria, infraestructura urbana, superficie legal de conservación y stock de bosque. Los resultados confirman una relación no lineal y estadísticamente significativa entre crecimiento económico y deforestación; sin embargo, los puntos de inflexión estimados, aunque económicamente plausibles, solo son alcanzados por pocos departamentos, por lo que la CAK-d no se valida como patrón generalizado. Además, las interacciones ingreso × formación boscosa muestran que la cobertura de bosque modera el efecto del crecimiento económico: para niveles bajos de stock puede emerger un umbral interpretable, mientras que para niveles medios y altos la reversión no se observa dentro del rango de datos. En conjunto, la evidencia sugiere una dinámica heterogénea donde la deforestación resulta del efecto combinado de crecimiento, estructura ecológica y uso del suelo, lo que exige políticas diferenciadas por territorio.
This study assesses the empirical validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for deforestation (EKC-d) in Peru, using a departmental panel for the period 2001–2024. Panel-data models with fixed effects and a quadratic specification of income are estimated, employing two indicators of forest loss (Amazon forest loss and tree-cover loss) and incorporating structural drivers such as agricultural expansion, urban infrastructure, legally protected areas, and forest stock. The results confirm a nonlinear and statistically significant relationship between economic growth and deforestation; however, the estimated turning points, although economically plausible, are reached only by a few departments, so the EKC-d is not validated as a generalized pattern. In addition, the income × forest-formation interaction terms show that forest cover moderates the effect of economic growth: for low levels of forest stock an interpretable threshold may emerge, whereas for medium and high levels no reversal is observed within the data range. Overall, the evidence suggests a heterogeneous dynamic in which deforestation results from the combined effect of growth, ecological structure, and land use, implying the need for territorially differentiated policies.
This study assesses the empirical validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for deforestation (EKC-d) in Peru, using a departmental panel for the period 2001–2024. Panel-data models with fixed effects and a quadratic specification of income are estimated, employing two indicators of forest loss (Amazon forest loss and tree-cover loss) and incorporating structural drivers such as agricultural expansion, urban infrastructure, legally protected areas, and forest stock. The results confirm a nonlinear and statistically significant relationship between economic growth and deforestation; however, the estimated turning points, although economically plausible, are reached only by a few departments, so the EKC-d is not validated as a generalized pattern. In addition, the income × forest-formation interaction terms show that forest cover moderates the effect of economic growth: for low levels of forest stock an interpretable threshold may emerge, whereas for medium and high levels no reversal is observed within the data range. Overall, the evidence suggests a heterogeneous dynamic in which deforestation results from the combined effect of growth, ecological structure, and land use, implying the need for territorially differentiated policies.
Descripción
Palabras clave
Economía, Ambiental
Citación
Toledo, N. (2025). Estimación de la curva ambiental de kuznets: relación entre deforestación y crecimiento económico en departamentos del Perú [Tesis de pregrado, Universidad Antonio Ruiz de Montoya]. Repositorio Institucional UARM. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12833/2877
