Determinantes estructurales y efectos del COVID-19 en el gasto público ambiental municipal: un análisis de datos de panel (2009-2024)
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2026
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Universidad Antonio Ruiz de Montoya
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La investigación aborda el impacto de la pandemia por COVID-19 sobre el gasto público ambiental municipal (GPAM) y sus principales determinantes en el marco de la hipótesis de Peacock-Wiseman. Para ello, se emplea un modelo econométrico de datos de panel con información de 1,796 municipalidades para el periodo 2009–2024, integrando variables socioeconómicas, ambientales y político-estructurales provenientes del MEF y del RENAMU. La estrategia analítica permite identificar cambios diferenciados antes, durante y después de la pandemia, así como estimar efectos marginales que capturan la capacidad fiscal, las presiones ambientales locales y la institucionalidad municipal en la gestión del gasto. Los resultados evidencian que la pandemia por COVID-19 produjo un incremento significativo y sostenido del GPAM, tanto durante la crisis como en el periodo posterior. Los ingresos tributarios y no tributarios son determinantes robustos del GPAM, lo que confirma que la autonomía fiscal municipal desempeña un papel central en la priorización del gasto ambiental. Además, la presencia de una Oficina de Gestión Ambiental (OGA) es uno de los determinantes más fuertes y significativos del GPAM, lo que confirma que la capacidad institucional formal influye decisivamente en la ejecución del gasto ambiental. Se concluye destacando la necesidad de fortalecer las capacidades institucionales locales y de consolidar mecanismos de financiamiento estables que protejan el gasto ambiental frente a futuras crisis y garanticen su continuidad en el desarrollo sostenible nacional.
This research addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on municipal environmental public spending (MEPS) and its main determinants within the framework of the Peacock-Wiseman hypothesis. To this end, an econometric panel data model is used, incorporating information from 1,796 municipalities for the period 2009–2024. This model integrates socioeconomic, environmental, and political-structural variables from the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the National Registry of Municipalities (RENAMU). The analytical strategy allows for the identification of distinct changes before, during, and after the pandemic, as well as the estimation of marginal effects that capture fiscal capacity, local environmental pressures, and municipal institutional frameworks in spending management. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant and sustained increase in MEPS, both during the crisis and in the subsequent period. Tax and non-tax revenues are robust determinants of MEPS, confirming that municipal fiscal autonomy plays a central role in prioritizing environmental spending. Furthermore, the presence of an Environmental Management Office (EMO) is one of the strongest and most significant determinants of the GPAM, confirming that formal institutional capacity decisively influences the execution of environmental spending. The report concludes by highlighting the need to strengthen local institutional capacities and consolidate stable financing mechanisms that protect environmental spending from future crises and ensure its continuity in national sustainable development.
This research addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on municipal environmental public spending (MEPS) and its main determinants within the framework of the Peacock-Wiseman hypothesis. To this end, an econometric panel data model is used, incorporating information from 1,796 municipalities for the period 2009–2024. This model integrates socioeconomic, environmental, and political-structural variables from the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the National Registry of Municipalities (RENAMU). The analytical strategy allows for the identification of distinct changes before, during, and after the pandemic, as well as the estimation of marginal effects that capture fiscal capacity, local environmental pressures, and municipal institutional frameworks in spending management. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant and sustained increase in MEPS, both during the crisis and in the subsequent period. Tax and non-tax revenues are robust determinants of MEPS, confirming that municipal fiscal autonomy plays a central role in prioritizing environmental spending. Furthermore, the presence of an Environmental Management Office (EMO) is one of the strongest and most significant determinants of the GPAM, confirming that formal institutional capacity decisively influences the execution of environmental spending. The report concludes by highlighting the need to strengthen local institutional capacities and consolidate stable financing mechanisms that protect environmental spending from future crises and ensure its continuity in national sustainable development.
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Gasto público, COVID-19, Pandemia de COVID-19, 2020, Economía medioambiental, Gobierno local, Economía, Gestión ambiental
Citación
Campos, Z. y Manrique, F. (2026). Determinantes estructurales y efectos del COVID-19 en el gasto público ambiental municipal: un análisis de datos de panel (2009-2024) [Tesis de pregrado, Universidad Antonio Ruiz de Montoya]. Repositorio Institucional UARM. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12833/2905
